Geographical Load Forecasting
The objective of the load forecast is to provide a twenty year forecast of expected load on high voltage transformers. This forecast is then used to model future load flows and facilitate long term infrastructure rollout and maintenance planning. In order to derive these forecasts, a number of factors need to be taken into account including:
- Current and future landuse
- Usage profiles (i.e. What is the load at various times of the day)
- Load growth (i.e. as consumers become more sophisticated or wealthier their consuption increases)
- Future developments
- Economic factors
- Forecasts from large power users, such as mines and other industry
- Group homogenous areas into various demand categories
- Take account of the cadastral to avoid meaningless boundaries between load zones
- Relate the resulting polygons to the network to identify feeder supply zones
Alignment with socio-economic analysis
The results of the spatial forecast were compared with the results of the Economic analysis and were found to be broadly in line. Growth predicted by the economic models matches well with the demand forecasts.
Large power users
In interviews held with Eskom customer account executives, large power users were identified (LPUs). For the purposes of this study, only large power users with a maximum demand over 1GVA were considered to be LPUs. Data for LPUs were included in the model.
Strategic planning documentation was scrutinised for the study area and new developments and growth areas were identified through interviews with relevant representatives of the municipalities in the area. These growth areas have been included as additional loads in the forecast.
This work was undertaken in conjunction with Inspired Interfaces, Isikhugusetu, Keith Moors and Clive Coetzee